Questions tagged [hidden-markov-models]

This tag is for questions relating to "Hidden Markov model", a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process with unobservable (i.e. hidden) states.

The Hidden Markov model or, HMM is based on augmenting the Markov chain. It allows us to talk about both observed events (like words that we see in the input) and hidden events (like part-of-speech tags) that we think of as causal factors in our probabilistic model.

Definition: Let $~{\displaystyle X_{n}}~$ and $~{\displaystyle Y_{n}}~$ be discrete-time stochastic processes and $~{\displaystyle n\geq 1}~$. The pair $~{\displaystyle (X_{n},Y_{n})}~$ is a hidden markov model if

  • $~{\displaystyle X_{n}}~$ is a Markov process and is not directly observable ("hidden");
  • $$~{\displaystyle \operatorname {\mathbf {P} } {\bigl (}Y_{n}\in A\ {\bigl |}\ X_{1}=x_{1},\ldots ,X_{n}=x_{n}{\bigr )}=\operatorname {\mathbf {P} } {\bigl (}Y_{n}\in A\ {\bigl |}\ X_{n}=x_{n}{\bigr )},}$$ for every $~{\displaystyle n\geq 1,} {\displaystyle x_{1},\ldots ,x_{n},}~$ and an arbitrary measurable set $~{\displaystyle A}~$.

Applications: Hidden Markov models are especially known for their application in reinforcement learning and temporal pattern recognition such as speech, handwriting, gesture recognition, part-of-speech tagging, musical score following, partial discharges and bioinformatics.

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model

https://web.stanford.edu/~jurafsky/slp3/A.pdf

94 questions
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Fun mathematical model to announce pregnancy to husband

My husband is a mathematical modeler and I would love to give him a model to announce to him that we're pregnant! He is a pharmacometrician and a neurologist and often uses R, PKPD, and Markov models, but also works avidly with other mathematics…
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Process properties of the maximum of two independent linear Brownian motions

Consider two independent linear Brownian motions $B'=(B'_t)_{t\geqslant0}$ and $B''=(B''_t)_{t\geqslant0}$, starting from $B'_0=B''_0=0$, and the process $X=(X_t)_{t\geqslant0}$ defined by $$X_t=\max\{B'_t,B''_t\}$$ What is known about the…
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How to interpret clusters on Markov chain time characteristics?

I have a complex network $G=(V,E)$ from multivariate financial time series in which a single vertex $v_i$ represents the types of states corresponding to the combination of the fluctuations of the prices on a given time frame, a single edge…
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Property of a Markov renewal process

Definition of a a Markov renewal process: Let the states of a process be denoted by the set $E= \{0,1,2, \dots\}$ and let the transitions of the process occur at epochs $t_0 =0,t_1,t_2, \dots$. Let $X_n$ denote the transition occurring at epoch…
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Understanding equation for estimating parameter for hmm with continuous observations?

I am currently trying to understand how parameter are being reestimate for hidden markov models (hmm), using EM. What i seem to have problems understanding what the symbol emission probability is actually modelling. In the discrete case it would…
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Hidden Markov Model, transition probabilities which are modeled with an exponential distribution

I'm looking at implementing an algorithm described in a paper, but I'm having trouble understanding how the transition probabilities for a Hidden Markov Model are defined. In the first sections, I have segmented an image into a number of areas, each…
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HMM, reverse engineering the transition matrix

I fitted a 2-states-HMM model last week, and generate a bunch of 1s and 0s, but I forgot to store its parameters (transition matrix). Now, I only got these 1s and 0s, how do I backward/reverse-engineering to estimates these transition matrix? Things…
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Hidden Markov Model

I am reading "Bayesian Reasoning And Machine Learning" and I'm doing exercise 23.3 (a) on p.490. Here's the exercise: Consider a HMM with 3 states $(M=3)$ and $2$ output symbols, with a left-to-right state transition matrix $A = \begin{pmatrix}0.5…
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States and observations in a HMM for FX markets

I would like to set up a hidden Markov model (HMM) for foreign exchange (FX) markets. To start with, I am thinking of a model that only has three states "up", "down" and "flat" (within some range from previous close). The states are compared to…
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An application of Birkhoff's ergodic theorem to Hidden Markov Models

Let $(X_{n}, Y_{n})_{n\in\mathbb{Z}}$ be a hidden Markov Model where the $(Y_{n})_{n}$ are the observations and the $(X_{n})_{n}$ are the hidden states which only take values 0 or 1. Assume that the Markov chain of the hidden states is irreducible…
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HMM - conditional probabilities

I am learning Hidden Markov Model, and I have some trouble to understand how the independance is used in the calculus \begin{aligned} \mathbb{P}(O(t) \mid y(t), \lambda) &=\prod_{j=1}^{\ell} \mathbb{P}\left(O_{j} \mid y_{j}, \lambda\right)…
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Hidden Markov Model - why backward probability is conditional on the current state

I'm trying to understand hidden Markov model (HMM). Here is the material which I studied. It states that there are two assumptions in HMM (page 3): $P( q_i | q_1, ..., q_{i-1} ) = P( q_i | q_{i-1} )$ $P(o_i | q_1, ..., q_T, o_1, ..., o_T) = P(o_i |…
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HMM - Does Foward-Backward algorithm has the same result as Viterbi if all transitions are possible?

I am attending a Bioinformatics class and we are learning about HMMs to make inference about DNA sequences. Well, we recently learned about the forward-backward algorithm that gives us the probability of being in a given state at time t given some…
2
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1 answer

mean hitting time for $M/M/1$

Consider a manufacturing process with batches of raw materials coming in. Suppose that the interarrival times of batches are i.i.d. exponential random variables with rate λ and their processing times are i.i.d exponential random variables with rate…
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Transition Kernel and Transition matrix

I know that this question might sound too vague, but what is the difference between a transition matrix and transition kernel. In my stochastic processes class we mentioned the transition matrix with its properties, but I am not aware of the…
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