Questions tagged [probability]

For questions about probability. independence, total probability and conditional probability. For questions about the theoretical footing of probability use [tag:probability-theory]. For questions about specific probability distributions, use [tag:probability-distributions].

The probability that an event occurs is a number in the interval $[0, 1]$, which represents how likely the event is to happen. $0$ indicates it will never happen, $1$ indicates it will always happen.

For example, throwing two dice gives a total of $6$ five times out of thirty-six. We write $$P(X=6)=\frac{5}{36}$$.

Use this tag for basic questions about probability, independence, total probability and conditional probability.

For questions about the theory of probability, use instead. For questions about specific probability distributions, use .

109063 questions
318
votes
6 answers

Multiple-choice question about the probability of a random answer to itself being correct

I found this math "problem" on the internet, and I'm wondering if it has an answer: Question: If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the probability that you will be correct? a. $25\%$ b. $50\%$ c. $0\%$ d. $25\%$ Does this…
user11088
308
votes
5 answers

In Russian roulette, is it best to go first?

Assume that we are playing a game of Russian roulette (6 chambers) and that there is no shuffling after the shot is fired. I was wondering if you have an advantage in going first? If so, how big of an advantage? I was just debating this with…
nikkita
  • 2,729
276
votes
13 answers

Given an infinite number of monkeys and an infinite amount of time, would one of them write Hamlet?

Of course, we've all heard the colloquialism "If a bunch of monkeys pound on a typewriter, eventually one of them will write Hamlet." I have a (not very mathematically intelligent) friend who presented it as if it were a mathematical fact, which got…
Jason
  • 1,415
221
votes
18 answers

Do men or women have more brothers?

Do men or women have more brothers? I think women have more as no man can be his own brother. But how one can prove it rigorously? I am going to suggest some reasonable background assumptions: There are a large number of individuals, of whom half…
layman
  • 1,887
211
votes
32 answers

Counterintuitive examples in probability

I want to teach a short course in probability and I am looking for some counter-intuitive examples in probability. I am mainly interested in the problems whose results seem to be obviously false while they are not. I already found some things. For…
209
votes
24 answers

Taking Seats on a Plane

This is a neat little problem that I was discussing today with my lab group out at lunch. Not particularly difficult but interesting implications nonetheless Imagine there are a 100 people in line to board a plane that seats 100. The first person in…
crasic
  • 5,139
194
votes
25 answers

Can a coin with an unknown bias be treated as fair?

This morning, I wanted to flip a coin to make a decision but only had an SD card: Given that I don't know the bias of this SD card, would flipping it be considered a "fair toss"? I thought if I'm just as likely to assign an outcome to one side as…
192
votes
7 answers

Is the product of two Gaussian random variables also a Gaussian?

Say I have $X \sim \mathcal N(a, b)$ and $Y\sim \mathcal N(c, d)$. Is $XY$ also normally distributed? Is the answer any different if we know that $X$ and $Y$ are independent?
176
votes
13 answers

What is the best book to learn probability?

Question is quite straight... I'm not very good in this subject but need to understand at a good level.
168
votes
15 answers

Monty hall problem extended.

I just learned about the Monty Hall problem and found it quite amazing. So I thought about extending the problem a bit to understand more about it. In this modification of the Monty Hall Problem, instead of three doors, we have four (or maybe $n$)…
161
votes
4 answers

Sum of random decreasing numbers between 0 and 1: does it converge??

Let's define a sequence of numbers between 0 and 1. The first term, $r_1$ will be chosen uniformly randomly from $(0, 1)$, but now we iterate this process choosing $r_2$ from $(0, r_1)$, and so on, so $r_3\in(0, r_2)$, $r_4\in(0, r_3)$... The set of…
154
votes
8 answers

Intuition behind Conditional Expectation

I'm struggling with the concept of conditional expectation. First of all, if you have a link to any explanation that goes beyond showing that it is a generalization of elementary intuitive concepts, please let me know. Let me get more specific. Let…
150
votes
6 answers

What's 4 times more likely than 80%?

There's an 80% probability of a certain outcome, we get some new information that means that outcome is 4 times more likely to occur. What's the new probability as a percentage and how do you work it out? As I remember it the question was posed like…
Jim
  • 1,251
140
votes
0 answers

Probability for an $n\times n$ matrix to have only real eigenvalues

Let $A$ be an $n\times n$ random matrix where every entry is i.i.d. and uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$. What is the probability that $A$ has only real eigenvalues? The answer cannot be $0$ or $1$, since the set of matrices with distinct real…
137
votes
8 answers

What is the difference between independent and mutually exclusive events?

Two events are mutually exclusive if they can't both happen. Independent events are events where knowledge of the probability of one doesn't change the probability of the other. Are these definitions correct? If possible, please give more than one…
Adnan Ali
  • 1,543
1
2 3
99 100