1

Is there any underlying reason for the commonality between the following two distributions, where we see that the CDF of the first is the reciprocal of the PDF of the second? I imagine it has something to do with order statistics but am interested if there is an elegant connection

Sum of Uniform (0,1) Variables

$$P(X_1+\dots+X_n\leq t)=\frac{t^n}{n!}$$ where $0<t<1$ and ${X_1,\dots,X_n}$ are n i.i.d. uniform (0,1) random variables. Proven here

Poisson Process: Conditional Arrival Times given n arrivals

If we know n arrivals occurred in the interval $[0,t]$, we find that the PDF for the vector of arrival instants $(T_1, T_2, \dots, T_n)$ is $f_{T_1, \dots, T_n}(t_1, \dots, t_n|N(t)=n)=\frac{n!}{t^n}$

This can be found by applying Baye's Rule and using the memoryless property $$F_{T_1,\dots,T_n}(T_1\leq t_1, \dots T_n\leq t_n|N(t)=n)=\frac{P(T_1\leq t_1) \dots P(t_{n-1}<T_n\leq t_n)}{P(N(t)=n)}$$ then differentiating.

1 Answers1

0

Poisson processes have independent increments. Let $0 \le t_1 < \dots < t_n < t_{n + 1} = t$. The independent increments assumption allows us to write the following probability as follows: $$ P(\cap_{i = 1}^{n}\{T_i \in \space (t_i, t_i + \delta]\}|\{N_t = n\}) $$ $$ =\frac{P(N_{t_1} = 0)\Pi_{i = 1}^{n}P(N_{t_i + \delta} - N_{t_i} = 1)P(N_{t_{i + 1}} - N_{t_{i} + \delta} = 0)}{P(N_t = n)} $$ $$ = \frac{e^{-\lambda t_1} \Pi_{i = 1}^{n}\delta\lambda e^{-\lambda \delta}e^{-\lambda(t_{i + 1} - t_{i} - \delta)}}{(\lambda t)^{n}e^{-\lambda t}/n!} $$

The multiplication over $e^{-\lambda (t_{i + 1} - t_i - \delta)}$ will yield $e^{-\lambda \Sigma_{i = 1}^{n}(t_{i + 1} - t_{i} - \delta)} = e^{-\lambda t + \lambda t_1 + \lambda n \delta}$ when combined with the other expressions, the numerator thus becomes $\delta^{n}\lambda^{n}e^{-\lambda t}$, which when divided by the denominator gives us $\delta^{n}\frac{n!}{t^{n}}$. The open sets generated by $\delta$ has volume $\delta^{n}$, which if we divide the expression by then take the limit of $\delta$ to zero, gives us the density of the expression, which is $f_{T_1, \dots, T_n|N_t}(t_1, \dots, t_n | n) = \frac{n!}{t^{n}}\mathbb{1}_{\{0 \le t_1 < t_2 < \dots < t_n\}}$, which is the expression you got. In the second line of the expression, we are calculating the probability of seeing arrivals within the $\delta$ arrival and not anywhere else, the division and multiplications also follow bayes, then we use poisson distribution with rate $\lambda t $ in the denominator and respective parameters in the numerator, so everything we got is valid.