Is it more or less probable to get a suite of number at the lottery?

Question

We have a debate here about the probability of getting certain numbers at the lottery.

I am convinced, but unable to formulate exactly why, that getting "1-2-3-4-5-6" is less probable than getting a "more random" sequence like "12-24-56-43-84-06", but my colleague is convinced that the probability is the same.

So, who is right ?

Well, I was thinking that you had to multiply the probability of getting a 1, by the probability of getting a 2, etc. But I'm starting to realize that you have to do exactly the same for any set of numbers... — thomasb, Sep 08 '15 at 09:30
There is no reason why (1,2,3,4,5,6) should be more (or less) probable than (12,24,56,43,84,6). A different problem is if your asking whether get 6 consecutive numbers is more or less probable than 6 non consecutive... — Manlio, Sep 08 '15 at 09:30

score 0 · Accepted Answer · answered Sep 08 '15 at 09:33

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It depends on how you define "more random".

In general every single sequence has the same probability as any other one, so the two sequence in your example have the same probability.

But if you consider, for example, the set of sequences with consecutive numbers versus the complementary set, the second one is extremely more probable. In fact the set of sequence with consecutive numbers has just 84 elments while the other one has millions, that's why in real life there aren't consecutive sequence

answered Sep 08 '15 at 09:33

karmalu

1,360

1

Try Florida Fantasy 5 in March 2011 when 14-15-16-17-18 was drawn. The real problem with consecutive sequences is that when they win you are more likely to have to split the prize with other people with the same idea. – Henry Sep 08 '15 at 09:56
I've always thought that people avoid consecutive sequences because they feel they're less probable. – karmalu Sep 08 '15 at 09:58
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@karmalu Maybe. But the persons in the minority that chooses for consecutives have much less options. – drhab Sep 08 '15 at 10:07
You're right :) we should find some data to settlr this question – karmalu Sep 08 '15 at 10:08

Is it more or less probable to get a suite of number at the lottery?

1 Answers1