Please see this question for background on this question: $\{S\} \not\in S$ in ZFC?
In that question, I have proven using only the axiom of pairing and axiom of regularity that given a set $S$: $S\not\in\ S$ and $\{S\}\not\in S$. Now I wish to prove that $\{\{S\}\}\not\in S$, however after much scribbling I have formed a hypothesis that using only these two axioms, it is not possible to show such. (edit: apparently I also am using extensionality here.)
My reasoning is: Assume $S$ is a set. Because the only axiom allowing new sets to be formed from $S$ is pairing, the only sets that can exist under these axioms are (first) pairs of $S$ with itself, i.e. $\{S,S\}=\{S\}$, and (second) pairs of $S$ and $\{S\}$ (e.g. $\{S,\{S\}\},\{\{S\}\}$), and (third) pairs of the above. Every set has either one or two elements. (this is very useful for doing casewise proofs.)
To show $S\not\in S$, I took $T=\{S\}$ and applied regularity to find such as a consequence. Specifically, since T is a singleton, $S$ must be the element that satisfies regularity (the "regular element") and from such it follows that $S$ cannot be in $S$.
To show $\{S\}\not\in S$, I took $T=\{S,\{S\}\}$ and applied regularity to find such as a consequence. Specifically, $\{S\}$ cannot be the regular element because $S\in\{S\}\land S\in T$, so $S$ must be the regular element meaning that both $S\not\in S$ and $\{S\}\not\in S$. (I could have used this example to show the first one, too, I suppose.)
Aiming now to show $\{\{S\}\}\not\in S$, I first took $T=\{S,\{\{S\}\}\}$, but now $\{\{S\}\}$ can in fact be the regular element (because $\{S\}\in\{\{S\}\}$ is only in $T$ if either $S=\{S\}$ (which I have shown to be impossible) or if $\{\{S\}\}=\{S\}$ which because they are both singletons implies $\{S\}=S$ which once again is impossible), so we can conclude that $\{\{S\}\}$ is a regular element, and thus we can not assume that $S$ is a regular element (as we could in the previous example).
So now I tried finding a contradiction, from assuming that $\{\{S\}\}\in S$. Because our only set building axiom is pairing, $S$ is necessarily either a singleton or a pair or some other set built by pairing from $S$ (call this $T$).
Case singleton: $S=\{\{\{S\}\}\}$
The regular element of $S$ must be $\{\{S\}\},\implies\{S\}\not\in S$ which (because $\{S\}\neq\{\{S\}\}$) is true. So this case does in fact satisfy regularity.
Case pair: $S=\{\{\{S\}\},T\}$
The regular element of $S$ is either $\{\{S\}\}$ or $T$.
-Case $\{\{S\}\}\implies\{S\}\not\in S$, which is true under the restriction that $T\neq\{S\}$.
-Case $T\implies\forall t\in T(t\not\in S)\implies T\not\in T\land\{\{S\}\}\not\in T$ , one of which is already proven and the other of which simply puts a restriction on $T$.
From this I wish to conclude that in this axiom system consisting of only pairing and regularity, $\{\{S\}\}\not\in S$ is not a provable statement and thus $\{\{S\}\}\in S$ is at least "possible" (or "not provably impossible"). Can I at this point conclude this, or must I somehow go further?