For a permutation $\pi$, let $S(\pi$) be the minimum number of transpositions required to sort the elements in increasing order. Show that for a random permutation $\pi \in S_{10001}$ $E[S(\pi)] ≥ 5000$, and deduce that $P(S(\pi) ≤ 4500) < 1/20$.
By using the probability space suggested in the answer to this question: https://mathoverflow.net/questions/120163/concentration-bounds-for-sums-of-random-variables-of-permutations it can be easily seen that the random variable S is 2-Lipschitz. If $E[S(\pi)] ≥ 5000$ then $P(S(\pi) ≤ 4500) < 1/20$ follows immediately by using the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality.
My question is: How can I show that $E[S(\pi)] ≥ 5000$?