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I want to apply the Girsanov theorem for change of measure for geometric Brownian motion under real world measure $\mathbb{P}$ to risk-neutral probability measure $\mathbb{Q}$ where the drift is given by stochastic interest rate modelled by CIR process, i.e. to show

$dS(t) = S(t) \cdot (\mu dt + \sigma_S dW_S^{\mathbb{P}}(t)) \iff dS(t) = S(t) \cdot (r(t) dt + \sigma_S dW_S^{\mathbb{Q}}(t))$

where

$dr(t) = \kappa_r \cdot (\theta_r - r(t))dt + \sigma_r \cdot \sqrt[]{r(t)}dW_r^{\mathbb{P}} (t) \:$ and $\: W_S^{\mathbb{P}}(t) = \rho_{S,\,r} W_r^{\mathbb{P}}(t) + \sqrt{1-\rho_{S,\,r}^2} W_{Z_1}^{\mathbb{P}}(t)$.

$W_r^{\mathbb{P}}(t)$ and $W_{Z_1}^{\mathbb{P}}(t)$ are independent Brownian motions. Correlation factor fulfills $|\rho_{S,\,r}|\leq 1$.

For this I need to show that the Novikov condition is satisfied for

$\gamma_S(t)=\dfrac{\mu_S-r(t)}{\sigma_S} $

With help of Can I apply the Girsanov theorem to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process? I already showed that

$\mathbb{E} \left[ \exp \left (\dfrac{1}{2}\int_s^{s+\varepsilon} \gamma_S^2(t) dt \right) \right] \leq \dfrac{1}{\varepsilon} \int_s^{s+\varepsilon} \mathbb{E} \left[ \exp \left (\dfrac{\varepsilon}{2} \gamma_S^2(t) \right) \right] dt $

Unfortuneately, I have no idea how to find the upper bound for the expectation under the integral in case of CIR process, especially non-central chi squared distribution. Is it possible at all? Any help appreciated!

Przemo
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  • $W_r$ and $W_S$ are independent? 2. The notation $W_r^{\mathbb{Q}}$ is a bit confusing. Say, if the answer to 1 is positive, and $W_r$ is a $\mathbb{P}$-Wiener process, then it will be $\mathbb{Q}$-Wiener as well (provided that $\mathbb{Q}$ exists).
  • – zhoraster Sep 26 '16 at 09:59