Can we define one finite set of input strings for a SHA-3 hash (or SHAKE XOF) function so that the collision probability is arguably lower than for a random oracle, with a definition of the set making no reference to the function? If so, what's an example with the ratio of function's to oracle's collision probabilities particularly low?
The definition of the set must be without constants obtained with help of evaluations of the function, or it's internal constants (that would be considered a reference to the function). There must be a demonstration or heuristic argument of the desired property using only considerations about the (sponge) structure of the function and it's internal parameters (rate, capacity…), rather than evaluation.
The collision probability is for two elements of the set drawn uniformly at random without replacement, or another collision probability to be proposed.
I understand that no experimental verification using the function as a black box is possible, for it would be a break.
The question is inspired by this comment, that suggests $\operatorname{SHAKE}(y\mathbin\Vert z)$ has less collisions than expected for a random oracle if the length of $y$ is less than the rate, and some other conditions.